Thunder Dan’s MLB betting picks for July 22: pitching props, totals, running line bets

The weekend has arrived and we have games scattered throughout the day at several different times, so there should be non-stop baseball for 10-12 hours to bet on today! Hi, it’s your friendly neighborhood sports betting enthusiast, Thunder Dan, here and I’m back with more MLB betting! Whether you like game totals, sides or player props, I have something here for you and try to cover a bit of everything!

Recently I launched my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller allow me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free sub-stack here and sign up to receive daily emails in addition to checking out the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I will provide my favorite MLB betting picks on FridayJuly 22, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but strongly encourage you to buy the best odds on any books you use daily. I would also advise coming back later today as I may add bets depending on how the odds change or the availability of specific props after my first post.

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MLB Betting Picks: Projections Crossed Out

I make my own projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season data and the most recent 14-day turnover samples of opposing pitchers and hitters when calculating these projections and I also include other useful statistics here that I look at while making my picks including pitchers’ SwStr%, BB %, etc… These are median projections that are based on the average length of each pitcher’s tee shot, so if you think a pitcher is going to throw deeper or shallower deeper than usual, adjust accordingly.

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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher’s Prop Betting

Max Scherzer o7.5K against SDP (+100 FD or DK)

Mad Max odds over for 8? Sign me up! He’s been phenomenal since returning from injury and you can see his numbers on the board are GREEN across the board.

Kevin Gausman o5.5K against BOS (-145 FD)

Gausman’s projection barely clears the bar here, and normally I wouldn’t chase a number this close at these juicy odds, BUT he’s owned the Sox so far this year with 19 strikeouts over two starts. I think he has six today, he should be rested and ready to throw splitters all day.

Shohei Ohtani o8.5K against ATL (+122 FD)

How not to continue surfing the Ohtani wave? DK hasn’t set his line yet, but if it’s 7.5, it won’t be for long. He’s in simply amazing shape and is having a great game against the Braves who love to swing the bat (and miss quite often)

Charlie Morton o7.5K (-140 FD)

Morton is match-up play du jour, and now you know we attack Angels for K props pretty much every day. That’s a decent amount of juice on a lot, but Charlie has been in good shape over the past month and the Angels’ K-rate continues to skyrocket.

Corbin Burnes o7.5K against COL (-150 FD)

It’s not a good game for strikeouts on paper, but Burnes mowed the guys down and it’s hard for me to imagine him not getting 8 at home against an inferior club. I don’t like the juice, but I think it’s still a very valid bet.

Who else to watch?

Braxton Garret! He just retired 11 Pirates last time out, and hopefully we can get him to 5.5 today, which I’d be willing to grab. If it’s 6.5 it gets a little harder, but it might be worth a gamble if the odds are juicy enough.

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MLB betting picks: sides and totals

Yankees o4.5 runs (-135 DK)

Brewers o4.5 races (-110 DK)

Both of these teams have my two best custom team projections today. The Yankees didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard in yesterday’s doubleheader, but I like their game here against Wells in Camden. My role model is all over them, and my gut tells me they’re going to score points tonight, hopefully that happens for us.

The Brewers are at home, where they’ve been strong offensively this year, and get a very hard-hitting Senzatela and the infamous (but not as bad as they once were) Rockies bullpen.

Tampa Bay ML (-104 FD)

Not sure why the Royals are favored here at home. They’re now going with Keller instead of Greinke, which helps their case, but Tampa are a significantly better all-around team and looked good heading into the break, winning six of their last seven games.

Texas ML (-116 AD)

I trust Spencer Howard to show up and pitch like we know he’s capable of pitching against a bottom-five offense in all of baseball. The Rangers offense rounded well, and while Cole Irvin is that guy who can troll us, I still think Texas has enough of an advantage here on offense to win this one on the road.

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so readers can see how each team fared in specific situations this year. I like watching trends, but I use them to back up my data-based choices, not to make proprietary picks.

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I hope you find my data and selections useful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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Neal T. Doss