MLB DFS Projections and Lineup Optimizer Values: September 30
A massive main slate to end the week and month featuring FanDuel with a 13-man and DraftKings with a 14-man which includes Game 2 of the ISP/WSH doubleheader (if the game is playing).
It’s a daily weekday MLB article that will hopefully show you new tools on RG as well as choices and analysis based on these tools.
Today’s FanDuel and DraftKings MLB DFS Projection overview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB like stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra batsman and we always have to find value bats that constantly change every slate that allow us to fit as many guys as we know are more likely to hit HRs and get those cap games that we need to win tournaments. I will focus on “main slate” of the day, but you can still find plenty of reviews for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comment sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is intended to highlight some of the most useful RG tools for MLBincluding our industry leading MLB DFS projection and MLB range optimizer, with some choices and analysis along the way. Let’s go!
MLB DFS Weather check
Before we take a look at the projected rosters and picks for the day, it’s important to have an idea of how the weather is impacting the slate so we know whether we want to target certain plays or avoid those. which are too risky. Two tools to use are MLB weather report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for the latest weather news.
FanDuel has no rain issues while DraftKings could end up as a 13-game slate with ISP/WSH game 2 is watching rain pretty much all day and night, so I don’t plan on using anyone in this game.
Almost all outdoor games are looking at temperatures in the 60s or lower with KC/CLE and MIN/DET dropping to the mid-50s. The hardest wind will be in NYM/ ATL with 10 mph in the center with KC / CLE watching at 10 mph from the right.
Dome games include today BOS/TOR, MIA/MIL, TBR/HOU, and OAK/SEA.
always watch MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on the current weather in that specific stadium. Today we see home runs for BL/NYY are -16.8% while total runs for PIT/STL are at -20%.
MLB Projected Alignments – Analysis and Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as the teams I’m looking to stack. Projected rosters will generally be pretty consistent day-to-day, with major changes occurring based on whether the opposing pitcher is right-handed or left-handed, as well as some guys more likely to have the day off if they play a game of day after a night game.
is on track to come back from IL today, so we’ll see if he gets back to the top or if Judge stays there. and are made for the year for TED with for AAL as he went on the IL as he came out of the IL yesterday. The Mets are calling the top prospect and he should start most days against lefties at DH or C and the Marlins will likely have Wendle, Garcia and Sanchez in the lineup today as we all got activated/promoted yesterday. hopes to return today from his ankle injury and we’ll see if he’s able to play with the arm bruise that cost him the last two games. is probably still absent for BOY and we’ll see if Randal Grichuk is able to come back from his illness as he was recently activated and should both be there against southpaw Kershaw. takes a day off and will be in the lead for BOS.
The Dodgers have by far the highest team total on the slate at just over 5.5 carries and they’re my favorite stack on the slate at home against right-hander Kuhl in good weather with a wind of 10 blowing mph. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels, Cardinals, Mariners and Padres are other stacks I like.
Be sure to follow the GR MLB Twitter feeds for today’s confirmed queues as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings and FanDuel Range Optimizer Picks
With a good idea of projected lineups, weather and strong stacks to consider, let’s take a look at LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our optimization tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 queues at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, all available players will be ranked from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per salary dollar on the specific point. DFS site you have selected – this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel, I’m starting with Will Smith ($3,100) and ($2,900) hitting the heart of my favorite stack today at excellent prices while ($2,400) is a solid value play reaching 6th place. Also at $2,200, it’s likely to hit the cleanup with the peloton advantage today over Alexander and is an attractive option to help set up expensive bats.
The Blue Jays have a great cheap line with Alejandro Kirk ($2,300), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,000) and ($2,500) while the Mariners also have a nice cheap line of ($2,300), ( $2,900) and ($2,200). We’ll see where ($2,600) hits in order and he’ll be in play for me if he hits first while ($3,000) is my next favorite NYY beats for the price.
More FD value to consider today includes ($2,000), ($2,900), Jose Miranda ($2,700), ($2,900), ($2,500), ($2,500), (2 $200) and ($2,100).
Looking at DraftKings, I like to start with ($2,600) and ($3,000) as the upside value is high, while Jose Miranda ($3,500) and ($3,100) are bats super strong at great prices. ($5,400) is my favorite Dodgers bat while ($4,800) and ($2,400) are still in play.
With Jung, I really like the stack of ($4,500), ($4,200), and ($2,800) all at great prices with the peloton advantage against a low southpaw to Detmers who allowed 4 ER in three of his last four starts. We’ll see who starts at C for TEXAS today, but if it is ($2,200), he’s a great punt play at C with two HRs in his last three starts.
Other bats I like for the price are ($3,800), ($3,100), ($3,600), ($3,400), ($3,100), ($2,600), ( $3,700), ($2,000) and ($3,500).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting rosters confirmed and throwing changes based on batting order or guys taking the day off and we learn of their replacements. The best p/$ games are usually fairly consistent throughout the day to MLB but can always change if someone hits higher in order than originally expected or if a cheap value play gets a tee off for an injured/rested player.
MLB DFS – Pre-locking RotoGrinders Premium tools
If you have tough last-minute decisions or need quick picks, be sure to check out our consensus value rankings, expert survey, and LineupHQ tags. DFS experts.
For breaking news and analysis leading up to lockdown, be sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live blog later today.
Good luck today!
Image credit: Imagne