MLB DFS Projections and Lineup Optimizer Values: September 29
FanDuel has a five-game main slate starting at 7:40 p.m. is and DK ignores MIA/MIL and from their four-game slate at 9:38 p.m. is.
It’s a daily weekday MLB article that will hopefully show you new tools on RG as well as choices and analysis based on these tools.
Today’s FanDuel and DraftKings MLB DFS Projection overview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB like stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra batsman and we always have to find value bats that constantly change every slate that allow us to fit as many guys as we know are more likely to hit HRs and get those cap games that we need to win tournaments. I will focus on “main slate” of the day, but you can still find plenty of reviews for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comment sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is intended to highlight some of the most useful RG tools for MLBincluding our industry leading MLB DFS projection and MLB range optimizer, with some choices and analysis along the way. Let’s go!
MLB DFS Weather check
Before we take a look at the projected rosters and picks for the day, it’s important to have an idea of how the weather is impacting the slate so we know whether we want to target certain plays or avoid those. which are too risky. Two tools to use are MLB weather report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for the latest weather news.
OAK/LAA will be in the mid 70s with winds blowing at 5 mph; BOY/SDP will be in the 70s with a light breeze to the right; COLLAR/SFG will be in the 60s with wind blowing at 10 mph; MIA/MIL & TEXAS/SEA are in domes.
always watch MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on the current weather in that specific stadium. Today we see home runs for BOY/SD are +8.2% while the total runs for OAK/LAA are +3.3%.
MLB Projected Alignments – Analysis and Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as the teams I’m looking to stack. Projected rosters will generally be pretty consistent day-to-day, with major changes occurring based on whether the opposing pitcher is right-handed or left-handed, as well as some guys more likely to have the day off if they play a game of day after a night game.
walked out of IL yesterday to COLLAR and is done for the year with a torn meniscus. may need another day with his bruised forearm and we’ll see if he returns to the Giants roster after being out the last two games against a right-hander. Mike Ford was picked by the Angels yesterday so Duffy and Thaiss will take care of 1B and have the next few days off with shin pain for BOY.
The Giants and Dodgers are my top stacks today while the Angels, Mariners and Brewers round out my top five.
Be sure to follow the GR MLB Twitter feeds for today’s confirmed queues as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings and FanDuel Range Optimizer Picks
With a good idea of projected lineups, weather and strong stacks to consider, let’s take a look at LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our optimization tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 queues at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, all available players will be ranked from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per salary dollar on the specific point. DFS site you have selected – this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel, I start with ($2,400) because he’s way too cheap for this game and the way he swings the bat with two triples and an HR in his last two games. ($2800) is the next bat I lock with the peloton advantage against Feltner while ($2800), ($2800) and ($2100) are all solid value plays if you want more SF exhibition.
We’ll see who the Padres end up starting today because there’s still some uncertainty if they’re going with Darvish, Manaea or a bullpen game, but if it’s someone not named Darvish, I’ll probably go with Will Smith ($3,200), ($3,100). ), and ($2000) in my main build.
Other value bats in play for me today include ($2,200), Andrew McCutchen ($2,800), Brian Anderson ($2,000), Bryan De La Cruz ($2,500), ($2,000 $), ($2,600), ($2,200), ($2,000), ($2,300), ($2,100) and ($2,300).
Looking at DraftKings, I still like ($5,100) even though it’s way more expensive than FD whereas ($3,800) is my favorite SF bat for the price. ($3,200) is also still very affordable while Brandon Crawford ($3,700) is another cheap SF bat to consider.
($3,500) and ($2,500) are where I would go for BOY value (if Darvish doesn’t start) while ($2300) and ($2500) are some super cheap bats to consider for AAL.
TEXAS/SEA also good value with ($2,300) still cheap with peloton advantage today with ($2,500) and ($2,200) while ($3,000), ($2,600) and Jared Kelenic ($2,300) are the cheapest way to get SEA exposure.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting rosters confirmed and throwing changes based on batting order or guys taking the day off and we learn of their replacements. The best p/$ games are usually fairly consistent throughout the day to MLB but can always change if someone hits higher in order than originally expected or if a cheap value play gets a tee off for an injured/rested player.
MLB DFS – Pre-locking RotoGrinders Premium tools
If you have tough last-minute decisions or need quick picks, be sure to check out our consensus value rankings, expert survey, and LineupHQ tags. DFS experts.
For breaking news and analysis leading up to lockdown, be sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live blog later today.
Good luck today!
Image credit: Imagne