MLB DFS Projections and Lineup Optimizer Values: September 28
Another big slate of twelve games without rain worries and another chance to incorrectly predict the homer on the first pitch of the game to tie the record.
It’s a daily weekday MLB article that will hopefully show you new tools on RG as well as choices and analysis based on these tools.
Today’s FanDuel and DraftKings MLB DFS Projection overview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB like stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra batsman and we always have to find value bats that constantly change every slate that allow us to fit as many guys as we know are more likely to hit HRs and get those cap games that we need to win tournaments. I will focus on “main slate” of the day, but you can still find plenty of reviews for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comment sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is intended to highlight some of the most useful RG tools for MLBincluding our industry leading MLB DFS projection and MLB range optimizer, with some choices and analysis along the way. Let’s go!
MLB DFS Weather check
Before we take a look at the projected rosters and picks for the day, it’s important to have an idea of how the weather is impacting the slate so we know whether we want to target certain plays or avoid those. which are too risky. Two tools to use are MLB weather report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for the latest weather news.
The East Coast Games (more COLLAR/SFG) will see temps in the 60s and 50s with ISP/CHC sees the most wind at 10 mph blowing from the left while OAK/LAA & BOY/SDP will be in the 70s. NYY/TOR, STL/MIL, ARI/HOU, and TEXAS/SEA are today’s dome games.
always watch MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on the current weather in that specific stadium. Today we see home runs for ISP/CHC are -31.6% while the total runs for MIA/NYM are at -7.2%.
MLB Projected Alignments – Analysis and Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as the teams I’m looking to stack. Projected rosters will generally be pretty consistent day-to-day, with major changes occurring based on whether the opposing pitcher is right-handed or left-handed, as well as some guys more likely to have the day off if they play a game of day after a night game.
left yesterday with ankle pain and Dusty Baker has already said he “hopes to be ready in a few days” so don’t plan on using it today. broke his little finger and will be going to IL and probably leaving today after leaving yesterday with right knee discomfort. got hit in the forearm yesterday and had a pretty big bruise so we could see him taking a day or two off and if you need a min price catcher on DK today Logan O’ Hoppe will do his MLB debut for the Angels today. It’s also worth mentioning that the Cardinals clinched a playoff spot yesterday so we can see regular starters like Goldy and Arenado get days off today in an already tough game against Woodruff and keep an eye out for his return. from IL today or Friday for the Yankees.
There are a lot of good pitchers today, so only a few offenses are on my radar. The Braves, Orioles, Red Sox and Angels are my best stacks and where I’ll be looking for most of my offense in cash games as well. I also like the Yankees against a fight while the Giants, Twins and Dodgers are stacks I would try MPEs.
Be sure to follow the GR MLB Twitter feeds for today’s confirmed queues as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings and FanDuel Range Optimizer Picks
With a good idea of projected lineups, weather and strong stacks to consider, let’s take a look at LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our optimization tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 queues at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, all available players will be ranked from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per salary dollar on the specific point. DFS site you have selected – this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel, I start with some right-handed Orioles against southpaw Hill who has allowed 4+ ER in four of his last five starts. ($2,700) is my best play of the day while Anthony Santander ($3,000), ($3,100) and ($2,600) are my next favorite BL bats and make a great inexpensive stack.
is having the best start of his career with a OSCG from the Astros but that’s not going to deter me from targeting the Red Sox bats because Kremer is still a career 4.53 TIME pitcher with a road 3.47 TIME this season and allowed a .282 batting average in road starts. ($3,000), ($2,700), ($2,800), and ($2,600) are a great cheap stack while ($3,800) is a good spend.
The Braves have the highest team total currently with just over 5 runs so I like to get some of their cash game offense with ($3300) my favorite game for the prize while Travis d ‘Arnaud ($2,900) and ($2,100) are cheaper options to consider. The Yankees are another offense I like today that might be under-held, so consider ($3,200), ($2,900) or ($2,900) for value.
Other bats on this slate that I like for cheap include ($2,600), ($2,800), ($2,500), ($2,700), and ($2,100).
Looking at DraftKings which I start with ($2,300) as my best value play as their advantage for that price is too big with three HRs in their last six games. I also really like Pham, Verdugo and Martinez at very affordable prices.
($4,100) is still a good play if you don’t go with Casas in 1B and want some more BL exhibition I would go with Anthony Santander ($4,500), ($4,800) or ($3,300). ($4,700) and ($4,900) are my top ATL bats for the price while ($4,500) and ($3,000) are where I would look for cheap exposure to the Yankees.
More value to consider today includes ($2,200), ($2,800), ($2,200), ($2,300), ($2,000), ($2,000), and ($2,400) .
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting rosters confirmed and throwing changes based on batting order or guys taking the day off and we learn of their replacements. The best p/$ games are usually fairly consistent throughout the day to MLB but can always change if someone hits higher in order than originally expected or if a cheap value play gets a tee off for an injured/rested player.
MLB DFS – Pre-locking RotoGrinders Premium tools
If you have tough last-minute decisions or need quick picks, be sure to check out our consensus value rankings, expert survey, and LineupHQ tags. DFS experts.
For breaking news and analysis leading up to lockdown, be sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live blog later today.
Good luck today!
Image credit: Imagne